Neighborhood Disorder and Criminal Victimization: Evidence from São Paulo

• In Event: The Determinants and Implications of Disorder

Abstract

The relationship between "broken windows" and victimization has rarely been tested in the context of large urban centers in developing countries. This study contributes to the literature by testing the effects of disorder on crime in São Paulo, Brazil. São Paulo’s drop in the homicide rate became a topic of study for researchers and policymakers. However, other forms of crime, such as thefts and robberies did not decline as rapidly. This article develops a model that includes disorder as a determinant of victimization and then instruments disorder with district-level average disorder. Employing an instrumental variable regression, this study finds evidence of a direct causal link between disorder and victimization in São Paulo. The result is robust across specifications of disorder, victimization once disorder is instrumentalized. The article concludes that adapting the experiences of other large urban centers, in the U.S. in particular, of reducing disorder might be a way to reduce levels of victimization in São Paulo

Author

• Erik Alda, American University