What Works Where? Evaluating the Utility of Targeted Risk-Based Patrol Strategies in Fayetteville, NC

• In Event: Spatial Risk Assessment, II

Abstract

This presentation will demonstrate how to combine the power of risk terrain modeling and conjunctive analysis to guide and evaluate targeted risk-based patrol strategies. First, risk terrain models were validated for a composite measure of aggravated violence over the course of one year in Fayetteville, NC. A Conjunctive analysis was then used to further disentangle the unique combinations of risk factors that created micro-level behavior settings that were at highest risk for crime. Information from these two analyses was used to select target areas for police interventions. Police activities at these target areas focused on the risky features (i.e. bars, tobacco stores, gang member homes) of the environment that were present in these locations. Data was collected on what police did, and where they did it. This data was analyzed in a follow-up conjunctive analysis to determine which police activities worked best in what behavior settings. A second risk terrain model was used to gauge the effects of the police interventions on the risk dynamics of these places. The implications for using risk terrain modeling and conjunctive analysis to guide targeted risk-based patrol strategies are discussed.

Authors

• Jeremy D. Barnum, Center on Public Security, Rutgers University

• Joel M. Caplan, Center on Public Security, Rutgers University

• Leslie W. Kennedy, Rutgers University

• Eric Piza, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Timothy C. Hart, Griffith University

• Henri Buccine Schraeder, Rutgers University