Why Two Years May Not Be Golden: Extending Recidivism Studies to Five Years or More

• In Event: Contributions of Longitudinal Studies on Understanding the Process of Desistance: Lessons from 4 Studies

Abstract

What is the appropriate length of follow up to determine whether a criminal justice intervention is effective? The multisite evaluation of the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative (SVORI) was a multiyear study that examined the effectiveness of reentry programming on post-prison recidivism. The study began in 2003 and included program participants in adult reentry programs and comparison individuals in 12 states. More than 2,000 individuals were interviewed shortly before release and were followed up in interviews at 3, 9 and 15 months post release; administrative data were used to provide a minimum recidivism follow up of approximately 2 years during the original study period. Findings suggested that reentry program participants experienced increased program participation and treatment and modest improvements in some intermediate outcomes, but experienced no significant reductions in post-release recidivism. A subsequent study extended the administrative data follow-up period to a minimum of 56 months. Recidivism outcomes were significantly better for SVORI program participants than comparison subjects over the longer follow-up period: 14% fewer arrests for men and 48% fewer arrests for women and longer average time to first arrest following release. The average time to reincarceration was also longer. These findings suggest that although researchers are often grateful to have two years of follow up that identifying success may take a longer period for individuals with serious criminal histories, who may be particularly prone to criminal ‘relapse’ immediately following release. We are currently conducting a new follow-up that will entail locating and interviewing the evaluation participants in two states (N = 750) with a focus on identifying the factors associated with (eventual) desistance from criminal activity.

Author

• Pamela K. Lattimore, RTI International