Estimating and Explaining the Value of Charge Bargains in New York

• In Event: Understanding Guilty Pleas: New and Innovative Research on Guilty Pleas in State Courts

Abstract

For many defendants convicted in American courts, the charge of the crime at arrest is more serious than the final charge of the crime at the subsequent conviction. One possible explanation is evolving evidence. Another possibility is that prosecutors negotiate on charges as part of the plea bargaining process i.e. charge bargaining. This possibility complicates sentencing research, which relies on the charge at conviction as a legal fact. It also complicates efforts to measure the size of the plea discount, since most comparison of trial and plea sentences accept the arrest charge as given. Recent research by Rehavi and Starr (2012) has focused on the potential importance of the movement from arrest to conviction charge in the federal system as a source of racial disparity. This paper will use case data from New York to estimate the distance traveled from arrest to conviction. The paper will then try to explain this distance using legal factors, including evidence, and extralegal factors. We will also investigate the extent to which the size of the discount is consistent with prevailing theories of plea bargaining.

Authors

• Shawn Bushway, University at Albany, SUNY

• Shi Yan, University at Albany, SUNY

• Allison Redlich, University at Albany, SUNY