Why Do They (Not) Keep Doing It? Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Recidivism (Desistance) among Serious Juvenile Offenders

• In Event: Theoretical Approaches to the Development of Offending

Abstract

This paper intends to examine factors contributing to recidivism and/or desistance among juvenile offenders based on micro-criminological theories of control, learning, and strain as well as deterrence/rational choice and labeling. Also considered are two factors often neglected in prior research: individual trait and religiosity. Since studying recidivism and desistance requires longitudinal research, data are drawn from a 10-wave panel study (conducted between 2000 and 2010) of 1,354 adjudicated youths from the juvenile and adult court systems in Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona (n = 654), and Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (n = 700). A life-course approach is taken to analyze the data, using group-based trajectory modeling not only to identify groups of individuals following similar developmental trajectories of self-reported offending but also explain each identified trajectory of recidivism and/or desistance. Explanatory variables, first examined separately for each theory and then collectively, include: control (family/school bonds, structured activities, etc.), learning (peer delinquency, gang involvement, etc.), strain (criminal victimization, neighborhood disorder, etc.), deterrence/rational choice (personal/social costs and rewards, certainty of punishment, etc.), labeling (arrest, drug/alcohol treatment, etc.), individual trait (personality, psychopathy, etc.), and religious factors (religious participation, religious salience, etc.). Sociodemographic backgrounds, including family structure, are controlled for. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Authors

• Sung Joon Jang, Baylor University

• Daniel Jang, University of Maryland