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Over 700,000 individuals are released from prison per year, approximately half of whom will be re-incarcerated within 3 years. A labeling perspective suggests that this high rate of recidivism may be linked to the criminogenic influences of prison and to the disadvantages that incarceration creates. A competing perspective suggests that social selection explains the poor out-comes of ex-inmates. While a considerable amount of research has investigated the effects of incarceration, almost without exception studies of recidivism lack detailed information on offenders prior to entering prison. This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth to generate counterfactual estimates of the criminogenic influence of incarceration. Specifically, this study uses propensity scores to match incarcerated and non-incarcerated individuals to estimate whether a prison term affects an individual’s likelihood to experience a later stint of incarceration, net of social selection factors.