Direct and Indirect Experiential Effects in a Bayesian Learning Model of Deterrence

• In Event: Deterrence Theory and Risk Perception Formation

Abstract

Risk perceptions are a central element of deterrence theory, but the process by which an offender’s direct and indirect criminal experiences contribute to future risk perceptions has been understudied. Further, there has been scant attention to the interplay of an offender’s self-serving bias within this process. This paper seeks to address both of these domains through an extension of the Bayesian learning model of Anwar and Loughran (2011) to account for signals obtained by an offender through their personal criminal experiences and the criminal experiences of their peers. This paper further extends this model to assess whether the updating procedure behaves differentially according to an offender’s self-serving bias. This procedure allows for an assessment of whether personal risk perceptions are updated in the face of indirect criminal experience and whether one weights their direct signal more heavily than their indirect signal. Data for this analysis was obtained from the Pathways to Desistance Study; results and implications for deterrence research are discussed.

Authors

• Theodore Wilson, University of Maryland

• Thomas Loughran, University of Maryland