Feeling Bulletproof: Does Carrying a Gun Make Crime Seem Less Risky to Offenders?

• In Event: A Developmental Picture of Gun Carrying and Gun Use Among High-Risk Adolescents

Abstract

A growing area of study in offender decision-making has focused on the formation of subjective perceptions associated with rational choice calculus, specifically focusing on risks, costs and rewards of crime. Thus far, this literature has mainly concentrated on modeling belief updating stemming from offending experiences, yet it has largely ignored the role of proactive measures taken on the part of the offender to possibly shift their calculus, including carrying a gun to reduce possible costs such as victimization. Using a panel of serious adolescent offenders tracked over 84 months, this paper aims to study how subjective perceptions of risks and costs to crime are altered by a) the choice an individual makes to begin carrying a gun, and b) experienced gun victimization. The unique nature of the data allows us to consider within individual variation in gun-carrying over time, and explore how this maps to contemporaneous changes in perceptions.

Authors

• Thomas Loughran, University of Maryland

• Joan A. Reid, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg