Assessing the Factors that Influence the Likelihood of Success and Failure on Pre-Adjudicatory Probation

• In Event: Juvenile Risk Assessment Tools

Abstract

The use of risk assessment instruments to help inform judicial decisions is part of a much broader trend in the last two decades across every stage of the juvenile justice system. Data collected on first time offending juveniles, from all 22 districts in Montana, who were administered a “Back On Track!” (BOT) survey will be investigated. The BOT is a risk assessment survey given to all juveniles charged with an offense in Montana. The survey is comprised of a variety of domains including prior offense history, social background, school background, and drug use among others. This study examines the factors that contribute to success and failure among juveniles who are released from detention across a 30 day, one year, and two year period of risk. Success is defined as refraining from a new felony or misdemeanor citation and avoiding failure to appear for court during the initial period of risk. Results from multivariate logistic models show that social history and prior offense history variables are key predictors. Contributions to the literature along with suggestions for future research are discussed.

Authors

• Patrick David McKay, University of Montana - Missoula

• Dusten Ray Hollist, University of Montana - Missoula