The Utility of Temporary Crime Hot Spots

• In Event: Patterns of Crime in Space and Time

Abstract

This study investigates the potential for preventing crimes at temporary hot spots in addition to chronic hot spots. We estimate chronic hot spots using kernel density smoothing, while we use simple rules for detecting flare-ups of temporary hot spots, predicting their persistence, deploying police, and stopping deployments. We also consider a combination program including the hottest chronic hot spots, with temporary hot spots applied to remaining areas. The combination program is the most efficient, equitable, and responsive hot spots program. After first allocating police prevention resources to the hottest chronic hot spots, the marginal benefits of adding more chronic hot spot area is not as high as adding temporary hot spots. Therefore, it is recommended that predictive policing should implement a combination program targeting both chronic and temporary hot spots.

Authors

• Wilpen Gorr, Carnegie Mellon University

• YongJei Lee, University of Cincinnati