Is Domestic Violence the Exception to Declining Crime Rates?

• In Event: Prevalence and Trends of Intimate Partner Violence

Abstract

There is general agreement that crime rates are declining in the western world. Trends in violenceappear to follow a similar pattern, but the picture is more ambivalent for domestic violence. Additionally, the statistical analysis of trend data is poor. Most discussion of crime trends is based on an appraisal of a graph. When the data series are survey based, this is unsatisfactory. Rarely is statistical testing used, and where it has been used, the analyses are not optimal.

This talk examines the changing prevalence rates of domestic and other forms of interpersonal violence as assessed by the Crime Survey of England and Wales. This is a yearly victimization survey which uses two methodologies – a face to face interview, and a self-completion questionnaire delivered by laptop computer. Using segmented regression models , which assume that rates change at specific time points, we can determine two results, firstly that decline in non-domestic violence occurs at an unchanging rate, with no evidence of change, and secondly in contrast there is evidence of a change in domestic violence rates, with the earlier decline being replaced by a slow increase after 2008. The policy importance of these results is discussed.

Authors

• Brian Francis, Lancaster University UK

• Sylvia Walby, Lancaster University UK

• Jude Towers, Lancaster University, UK