Risk and Protective Factors of Offending Trajectories: Twelve-Year Follow-Up Study

• In Event: Examining Patterns of Aggression and Delinquency Using Group-based Trajectory Models

Abstract

The purpose of the present study is to analyze the distinctive developmental trajectories of institutionalized offenders and to identify protective and risk factors associated with persistence and desistance. Semi-parametric group-based trajectory modeling will be conducted on a sample of over 3,000 juveniles who were referred to the Juvenile Court in South Korea in 1998. To estimate the number and shape of baseline trajectory pathways from adolescence into adulthood, criminal careers as measured by conviction records over a period of 12 years will be examined. Background characteristics and psychosocial functioning at baseline interview will be correlated with chronic-offender or desister group membership to isolate variables systematically associated with change over time. We will also investigate whether a custodial order received during adolescence is predictive of persistent criminal involvement later in life. Theoretical and policy issues related to the findings will be discussed.

Authors

• Daiwon Lee, CUNY Graduate Center / John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Hung-En Sung, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Youngsun Han, Ministry of Justice, South Korea