Determining order in a chaotic world: Understanding gun violence in communities

• In Event: Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Applying Innovative Thinking to Research Conducted in Real-world Settings

Abstract

In a linear model, effects scale up and down with their causes; in a nonlinear model, small changes can have large and exponential effects, which mean you can’t try to manage just one part of the environment in order to effect change. Chaos Theory provides a framework for understanding sensitive nonlinear dynamics of the social world, including the variability of human behavior within the changing context of complex and nuanced environments. This paper will explore the use of Chaos Theory to understand and examine how seemingly disparate variables may be connected to produce outcomes in a complex gun violence prevention initiative that uses a pulling levers approach within a public health framework.

Authors

• Trevor A. Fronius, WestEd

• Patricia Campie, American Institutes for Research