Drone Effects: Measuring Structural Change in Al Qa'ida Communications

• In Event: Drones on Terrorism

Abstract

This study offers an unprecedented glimpse into the structure of communications flowing to and from central Al Qa’ida command during a period of intense fighting and targeted U.S. drone strikes. Using recently declassified documents, written 2006 – 2010, released by the Combatting Terrorism Center (CTC), we identified 644 unique message chains. Two communication networks were generated: one network maps messages among actors and the second network shows information passing between different roles (positions held by people). Partitioned into three different time periods, the communication networks were examined for structural stability and centrality. Stochastic actor-based models suggest that the actor-to-actor network was unstable as opposed to the role-based network that increased in stability when under attack. Also, local hierarchy (measured as a 3-cycles effect) and betweenness centrality increased while the organization was under attack. Finally, Al Qa’ida central command surfaced as top brokers during the period of drone attacks. It can be concluded that these documents reveal that the targeted strikes did not have the intended effect of destabilizing communications among prominent leaders.

Authors

• Stacy Bush, California State University, San Bernardino

• Gisela Bichler, California State University, San Bernardino