How much time should officers spend in nighttime economy hotspots? Lessons from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Northern Ireland

• In Event: Policing Hot Spots

Abstract

In recent years policing scholars have started to look more rigorously at the dosage question. The issue of resource allocation became more crucial after the economic crisis of 2008, with many forces operating on reduced budgets and fewer available officers for deployment. Theoretically, the “amount” of policing required to deal with the crime problem– especially in preventative ways – reflects heavily on the foundations of both deterrence theory and various management theories.
Our experiment deals with the question of police dosage necessary to prevent crime and disorder in night-time economy hotspots in Belfast, Northern-Ireland. We randomly allocated teams of officers to either rotating 15-minute visits or static deployment to known entertainment hotspots (20% of all the city hotspots). GPS trackers were used to measure dosage levels as-delivered. If the estimates are reliable, then we conclude that statistic deployment is 8 times more expensive than short random visits to entertainment hotspot, with similar crime-reduction outcomes compared to static deployment. We present the results with an emphasis on how GPS tracking provide a tool for compliance monitoring and a method of directing resources in a “smart way”.

Authors

• Nigel Goddard, Cambridge University

• Barak Ariel, Cambridge University / Hebrew University