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Lead Astray: A Spatial Investigation of Air Quality and Crime

Wed, Nov 19, 3:30 to 4:50pm, Marriott, Pacific E, 4th Floor

Abstract

Despite evidence that lead exposure and crime appear strongly related, especially in areas characterized by socioeconomic disadvantage, some critics may suggest that lead no longer poses a threat to individuals and communities since leaded gasoline became phased out of the U.S. However, recent work demonstrates that lead concentrations remain elevated in local environments. Notwithstanding its eradication nearly two decades ago, researchers have found that the effects of lead persist to contaminate air, water, and soil. Addressing limitations in previous studies, we combined data from the UCR with socio-demographic estimates from the census and air-lead emission levels from the EPA to test the effect of air-lead exposure on rates of violent crime. Net of age structure, race, rates of divorce and unemployment, and socioeconomic disadvantage, the level of air-lead emissions is significantly related with violence both statistically and spatially. Our study represents the first investigation that both comprehensively and rigorously tests the effect of lead exposure on crime that reveals the spatial distribution of such relationships across all U.S. counties.

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