Modeling the Incarceration Epidemic

• In Event: Poster Session

Abstract

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the per capita rate of incarceration nearly quadrupled between 1978 and 2011 from 137 to 511 persons per 100,000. As of 2011, the incarceration rate of black males was 3,023 per 100,000, whereas non-Hispanic white males were incarcerated at a rate of 478 per 100,000 . There are many explanations for the growth in incarceration. We test the plausibility of one factor: racial disparities in sentencing. The premise of this project is that incarceration behaves like an infectious disease. We use agent based modeling (ABM) to test if incarceration can be accurately modeled as being “transmitted” from one person to another. We verify the model by comparing predicted recidivism rates with actual rates. Our ABM reproduces many facets of the incarceration epidemic in the U.S. It is plausible that differential sentencing plays a causal role in producing today’s incarceration rates. The effects of sentencing policies go beyond individual inmates– they have the potential to affect entire families and communities. This does not mean that differential sentencing is the whole story– incarceration is complex; however, serious thought should be given to sentencing policy.

Authors

• Jose Torres, Virginia Tech

• James Hawdon, Virginia Tech