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In 2007, state legislators in Connecticut halted parole and early release from prison in response to a horrific home invasion carried out by two White offenders in a small town community. As a result of immediate policy action, incarcerated individuals remained in prison and individuals under community release were re-incarcerated while legislators argued for stronger sentencing laws, including a ‘three strikes’ policy. However, it is not clear if and how this policy response affected recidivism rates. Furthermore, Connecticut has among the highest rates of disproportionate minority incarceration (Mauer, 2007), thus, it is important to determine if the policy response differentially affected recidivism outcomes by race. The present study employs a regression discontinuity design to examine the impact of Connecticut’s policy response to the home invasion on three year recidivism outcomes for 679 men, while accounting for known risk factors, such as age, age of first arrest, and prior parole and probation violations, who were released from prison between 2005 and 2009. We also examine whether the state policy response disproportionately impacted recidivism for Minorities compared to Whites. Implications for the impact of state policy responses on individual outcomes are discussed with attention to state policy efforts to respond to crime.
Bronwyn A. Hunter, Yale University
Christina Campbell, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale
Derrick M. Gordon, Yale University