Perceived Risk of Crime in Peru: A Multilevel Longitudinal Study

• In Event: Regional and International Differences in Fear of Crime

Abstract

Perceived risk of crime (PRC) literature has two shortcomings. It has focused mainly on developed countries, and mainstream theories (vulnerability, victimization, social disorganization, social capital, and media impact) are often tested without contextualization and consideration of individual and environmental factors. In Latin-America, PRC literature is scarce and follows the mainstream theories, along with its problems.

Peru is the focus of this study. We used a longitudinal (2010-2013) sub-national representative household survey (n=367,137). A multi-level approach was performed to understand the interactions of individual PRC in relation to mainstream theories at the neighborhood and district levels. National context was introduced through indicators of opinion towards democracy, race heterogeneity and local-police resources. Additional controls were introduced and respond to local problems (inequalities, socioeconomic status and worker category).

The results confirm mainstream theories. While crime rates are not important determinants of PRC, higher PRC was found in vulnerable groups (women, older persons) and previous victims. Local social networks (common in low-income areas) buffer the effect PRC. While inequality fosters PRC, the latter has an inversed-U shape relationship with socioeconomic status.

Author

• Wilson Hernandez, Universidad de Lima