Moving Beyond Kingpins: Targeted Removal and the Optimization of Network Fragmentation in Trafficking Organizations

• In Event: Criminal Networks and Crime Control

Abstract

In recent years, social network analysis has become increasingly important in understanding and measuring the effectiveness of disruption strategies on criminal and other illicit networks. However, research on the effectiveness of law-enforcement strategies that employ targeted removal (i.e., the arrest or killing of key actors) within criminal networks remains in a nascent stage and is somewhat limited in scope. To begin addressing these limitations, we use data on seven transnational trafficking-networks across five commodities (drugs, humans, wildlife, weapons, and radiological/nuclear material) to model the effects of key actor removal on network fragmentation. We conduct four simulations to identify fragmentation thresholds based upon (1) degree centrality, (2) betweeness centrality, (3) actor attributes/roles, and by using (4) Borgatti’s (2006) key player analysis. A comparative analysis across models optimizes thresholds for node removal while accounting for nodal function within the trafficking supply chain, overall network structure (e.g., scale-free, star-like, all-channel), differences in trafficked commodities, and other relevant meso and macro-level factors. We conclude with a discussion of the theoretical implications for criminal networks and the practical applications for future targeted removal strategies employed by law-enforcement agencies.

Authors

• David C. Hofmann, SUNY Polytechnic Institute

• Brandon Behlendorf, State University of New York at Albany