Risk Terrain Modeling of Crime and Coping Strategies in Vhembe District of Limpopo, South Africa

• In Event: Roundtable: International Crime

Abstract

In South Africa violent crimes rate remain disturbingly high with many unreported affecting coping strategies of residents. This paper builds on risk and spatial analysis results of prior research trying to set up relationship between modeling of crime outcomes, coping styles and fear of crime among residents. We begin by analyzing the spatial distribution of crime outcomes in six towns in Vhembe District using Risk Terrain Modeling and evaluate how well the indigenous knowledge of the residents are currently located. Survey research methodology is adopted for the crime survey. Collector for ArcGIS and Open Data Kit applications are used to collect crime data (dependent variable) where explanatory variables include dwelling types, road networks, proximity to police stations, mean household income, coping styles, percentage unemployed and age group. Completed survey forms and collected features are synchronized into ArcGIS Online. Spatial influences for residential burglary, auto theft and street robbery are operationalized and validated using Ordinary Least Squares Regression, ensuring the explanatory variables are statistically significant using Morans I tool. Output risk terrain maps produced will serve police force make real-time forecasts preventing new crimes and violence, strategically allocate resources at micro-places; allowing residents boost their perceptions of personal safety.

Authors

• Oladipo Steven Akinpelumi, University of Venda

• Nthaduleni Samuel Nethengwe, University of Venda

• Beneah Daniel O. Odhiambo, University of Venda