Predicting Drug Markets: An Examination of Social Disorganization and Routine Activities in Drug Neighborhoods

• In Event: Urban Drug Markets, Neighborhood Surveillance, and Group Stratification

Abstract

This paper examines the cross-sectional relationship between drug markets and indicators of physical and socio-economic conditions of block groups in the South Bronx. Drawing on social disorganization and routine activities theory, we seek to answer two research questions: 1) What is the magnitude, and spatial distribution of illicit drug markets in South Bronx? And, 2) to what extent do ecological measures of physical and socio-economic conditions predict spatial variation and prevalence of illicit drug markets? To address these questions we use observational data collected in the summer of 2015 using systematic social observation (SS). Street blocks assessed via SSO by pairs of trained observers are aggregated at the block group level and merged with census data and other administrative sources on physical and socio-economic conditions of the study area.

Authors

• Aaron Ho, New Jersey City University

• Andres Rengifo, Rutgers University

• Lee Slocum, University of Missouri - St. Louis