Civilians Killed by Police Pre- and Post-Ferguson: A Time-Series Analysis

• In Event: Civilians Killed by U.S. Police in 2015

Abstract

Dating back to the August 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, there has been much debate about the “Ferguson Effect” – which holds that heightened levels of scrutiny surrounding law enforcement has resulted in de-policing. Using data gathered by www.killedbypolice.net, we explore trends in deadly police shootings during the 66 weeks before and after Michael Brown’s death. Given that a substantial number of deadly shootings begin as routine stops (i.e., traffic violations or suspicious persons), we would expect there to be fewer deadly shootings post-Ferguson if de-policing has actually occurred. We also disaggregate the analysis by civilian race to determine whether fewer minorities have been shot and killed post-Ferguson, consistent with recent findings regarding the “counter bias” effect - which suggests that police may be more hesitant to use force against minorities for fear of backlash from their agency and/or the media.

Authors

• Bradley A. Campbell, University of Louisville

• Justin Nix, University of Louisville

• Edward R. Maguire, Arizona State University