A Risk Prediction Face-off: Comparing Dynamic and Static Instruments and the Implications for Community Corrections

• In Event: Predicting Behavior and Pursuing Profit: Offender Reintegration, Recidivism, and Puppy Mills

Abstract

With an increasing number of offenders released from prisons each year, parole supervision has increasingly been relied upon to manage offenders after their release in the community. The shift in the purpose of parole supervision from reintegration to public safety has resulted in the development of risk prediction instruments used to identify offender risk to the community. Using a diverse sample of male offenders released to parole supervision in a high-risk area of New York, this study focused on comparing the predictive validity of a fourth generation risk assessment tool, the Correctional Offender Management for Profiling Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) tool, and the predictive validity of a static risk score, calculated using several factors from an offender’s computerized case history (CCH). Using a dynamic risk tool solely for the purpose of risk prediction, when a static-based tool performs better, has implications for local parole practice and policy, including issues of implementation fidelity and resource utilization. These implications at the local level, as well as implications for parole practice and policy more generally, will be discussed.

Author

• Bryn Herrschaft, Temple University