Examining the Relationship between Police Crime Rates and Clearance Rates Using Dual Trajectory Analysis

• In Event: Identifying Effective Police Investigative Practices: A National Study Using Trajectory Analysis

Abstract

What is the relationship between crime rates and clearance rates? In other words, if police improve their ability to resolve crimes already committed over time, does this have any effect on crime rates over time? To examine the relationship, this study uses dual trajectory analysis on 30 years of crime and clearance data for homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary from police agencies with greater than 100 sworn officers. Results allow the sample to be categorized according to their specific crime and clearance rate trends, and then to determine whether those trends are related. This allows nuances to emerge among individual agencies that may otherwise be masked by the national trends.

Author

• Heather Vovak, George Mason University