Risk-Based Modeling of Crime and Social Conditions in a Metropolitan County

• In Event: Strategic Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Crime Patterns

Abstract

Traditional approaches to proactive policing rely heavily on analysis of prior crime trends, identification of “hot spots,” and the concentrated allocation of valuable police resources in an effort to deter future crime. However, while such approaches can be effective in addressing major crime problems in the short-term, they rarely address the complex underlying social and economic issues associated with local crime problems, as departments tend to have little systematic insight in this regard. The present study attempts to develop a predictive model based on Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) that incorporates a large number of local area characteristics, low-level disorder, socioeconomic characteristics, and prior crime problems in a large metropolitan county. Areas identified as high-risk for future crime, associated underlying issues, and recommendations for both efficient police interventions and pro-social institutional interventions will be addressed. The presentation will conclude with a discussion of challenges encountered and suggestions for further research and development.

Authors

• Audrey C. Clubb, Georgia State University

• Dean Dabney, Georgia State University

• Josh Hinkle, Georgia State University