Forecasting Mafia Related Homicides

• In Event: Risk Terrain Modeling I

Abstract

Mafia related homicide is re-emerging as a serious crime problem in the Italian city of Naples. This growth is mainly connected to the increasing rivalry among emerging groups of young criminals that compete for the control of the territory. This study creates a spatial model based on the RTM methodology to identify the risk factors increasing the likelihood that a mafia related homicide will occur in a specific place. Factors regarding both the mafia groups’ activities and relational information about the existing conflicts are used. The model has been applied to real data obtaining promising results. This approach could be also applied to gangs or others organized crime groups.

Authors

• Marco Dugato, Università Cattolica - Transcrime

• Francesco Calderoni, Università Cattolica - Transcrime

• Giulia Berlusconi, Università Cattolica