Declining Returns: Explaining Trends in Recidivism Rates of Florida Inmates, 2004-2010

• In Event: Historical Perspectives and Trends of Prisons and Inmates

Abstract

While recidivism is commonly studied in criminological research, little is known about the trends in recidivism rates for released inmates and the potential causes of these trends. The Bureau of Justice Statistics has published a series of papers on national recidivism estimates, the “Recidivism of Prisoners” reports, but only two years – 1983 and 1994 – can be compared across measures of recidivism. However, the most current report on releases in 2005 is not comparable to the previous two reports. This paper advances the research by examining changes in recidivism by intervals of month of release (n=84) among all 217,096 inmates released from Florida prisons from 2004 through 2010. Recidivism is measured in multiple ways, including return to prison for a new offense, return to prison for a technical violation of supervision, re-conviction, and re-arrest for a felony offense. Results of models of changes in recidivism will be presented to explain if changes in recidivism rates are explained by factors such as demographics, economic conditions, and correctional policy changes in Florida.

Authors

• Catie Clark, Florida State University

• William Bales, Florida State University

• Gerry Gaes, Florida State University

• Samuel Scaggs, Florida State University