Assessing the Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Non-Hot Spot Areas: Results from a Quasi-Experimental Evaluation

• In Event: Assessing Hot Spots Policing Strategies

Abstract

Implementing hot spots policing on a widespread and consistent basis requires police to shift more of their activities into hot spot locations and away from lower-risk areas. This strategy implicitly assumes that reducing police activity in lower risk areas will not cause crime to increase in those areas or that any increases that do occur in those areas will be outweighed by gains in targeted hot spots. However, these wider effects of hot spots policing have received little direct investigation. We will examine this issue by analyzing the effects of a hot spots policing initiative launched in one district of a large metropolitan police agency in the United States. The initiative prioritized proactive policing activity in a small number of hot spots, resulting in a marked decline in proactive work in other parts of the district. Using a quasi-experimental design, we will assess whether this shift affected crime in the district overall and specifically in non-hot spot areas. We will then consider the implications of the results for developing optimal patrol allocations across hot spots and lower risk areas.

Authors

• Christopher Koper, George Mason University

• Cynthia Lum, George Mason University

• Xiaoyun Wu, George Mason University