Behavioral Economics, Rational Choice, & Sanction Perception Updating

• In Event: Decision-Making, Quasi-Rational Choice, and Behavioral Economics

Abstract

This study investigated the Bayesian Updating (BU) component of Rational Choice Theory (RCT) from the standpoint of Behavioral Economics (BE). We began with the model of Anwar and Loughran (2011) to identify areas where BE might provide insights. Thereafter, we present findings from a series of randomized experiments, embedded in two nationwide surveys of American adults (18 and over) in 2015 (N = 1,004 and 623). The results suggest that prior probability estimates are blunter and more diffuse than as depicted under RCT. This, in turn, creates circumstances for various decision-making heuristics to bias the perceptual updating process. BE thus appears to be a fertile source of principles and future research directions for better understanding crime as choice.

Authors

• Sean Patrick Roche, University at Albany, SUNY

• Greg Pogarsky, University at Albany, SUNY

• Justin Tyler Pickett, University at Albany, SUNY