Shall-Issue Laws and Handgun Sales: Results from Interrupted Time Series Analyses in Seven States

• In Event: Gun Control Policies and Debates

Abstract

In states that have adopted CCW laws, news reports often suggest that CCW laws create a spike in handgun sales as people seek to exercise new conceal carry rights. Despite the fact that multiple studies have debated the efficacy of CCW laws (whether for good or for ill) through their supposed effect of increasing the number of gun carriers in the general population, previous research has left unaddressed whether or not CCW laws actually do increase firearm sales. Using state-month level data on background checks for handgun purchases in seven states (Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin) I use interrupted time series analyses to conduct a quasi-experimental assessment of CCW laws’ effect on handgun sales. Findings show that the adoption of “shall-issue” CCW laws do indeed result in a handgun sales spike, and despite seasonal variation, these laws foster an increase in handgun sales overtime. I also assess how NRA membership, murder rates, and unemployment may affect handgun sale rates and find that only unemployment appears to affect handgun sales. Howeve,r the effect for unemployment is found to vary across states. I conclude with some suggestions for future research on handgun demand and state gun laws.

Author

• Trent Steidley, University of Denver