Catching up in crime? Long-term processes of recidivism within the criminal histories of convicted males and females

• In Event: From Cradle to Grave: Crime Across the Entire Life Course

Abstract

While males are heavily overrepresented in almost every crime category that may lead to a conviction, there is ambiguity in the predictive value of gender on recidivism patterns over the life course. By using a complete Swedish birth cohort born in 1965, the present study is able to examine long-term recidivism patterns in a substantial number of convicted males (N=27,071) and females (N=7,531) followed up to age 47. Repeated event history data of criminal convictions is analyzed utilizing detailed information on convictions. The analysis shows that the decline over time in the risk for recidivism, as previously demonstrated in male samples, is replicated for females. In connection with first and second convictions, males had a stronger tendency towards recidivism than females, but the recidivism risk among females becomes increasingly similar to that found among males as convictions accumulate over the life course. The study also shows that drug offenses and prison terms are more pronounced predictors of recidivism in females than in males. The results suggest that the predictive value of gender for recidivism is conditional on criminal history. The results are discussed in the light of developmental and life course theories of continuity in crime.

Author

• Fredrik Sivertsson, Stockholm University