The Foreshadowing of Desistance Among Incarcerated Juvenile Offenders

• In Event: Desistance In and Out of Prison

Abstract

A classic criminological concern involves the changes that offenders experience during incarceration. Early ethnographic research documented aversive aspects of incarceration that often increased recidivism. Recent research confirms that pattern to some degree, but it also points to variation in the incarceration experience, with some offenders displaying shifts during confinement that foreshadow future patterns of desistance. This study builds on this research to further consider offender change and its connection to recidivism. We do so with data from a sample of roughly 4,000 incarcerated and released juvenile offenders in Florida. These data allow us to assess shifts during confinement on key individual and social variables related to education, family relationships, peer associations, and a willingness to self-regulate, among other things. We attend to key nuances neglected in otherwise strong recent research on this issue. This first involves clarifying patterns of offender change with greater precision, with special attention to whether such changes typically are specific to select areas of life. Next, we examine the effects of offender change on recidivism, with special attention to identifying key thresholds beyond which offender change becomes especially consequential for recidivism.

Authors

• Carter Hay, Florida State University

• Alex O. Widdowson, Florida State University