The Dynamics of Neighborhood Crime: A Multi-City Longitudinal Analysis

• In Event: Neighborhood Change, Crime, and Prisoner Reentry

Abstract

The 2000s witnessed plummeting crime rates in cities across the United States. Yet, a small but growing body of research points to uneven experiences with the crime decline across neighborhoods within cities. Some neighborhoods enjoyed decreases, while others experienced increases in crime or no change since 2000. Yet, information about the extent and sources of this heterogeneity in crime trajectories is almost totally lacking. With a unique dataset that combines crime and demographic information for neighborhoods in 15 cities from 1999-2013, we explore: (1) the patterning of neighborhood crime changes in the post-2000 period; (2) whether these changing patterns resulted in a new rank ordering of crime levels across neighborhoods; and (3) what accounts for the variation in neighborhood crime trajectories. We pay particular attention to the roles of racial composition and economic disadvantage in shaping patterns of neighborhood crime over time. We also explore whether the trajectory of a neighborhood's crime rate depends upon city conditions such as residential racial segregation and economic disadvantage.

Authors

• Elizabeth Sabbath, University of New Mexico

• Lauren Krivo, Rutgers University

• Christopher J. Lyons, University of New Mexico

• Jason B. Phillips, Rutgers University, New Brunswick

• Maria Beatriz Velez, University of New Mexico