The Mediating Effect of Peace Talks on Hostage Taking Incidents in Colombia

• In Event: The Changing Character of Global Violence and Innovative Justice Strategies

Abstract

This research examines the impact of government sponsored peace negotiations on hostage taking incidents for the period 1970-2010. Placing this historically prevalent form of organized crime in a political-criminal context, the authors hypothesize that insurgent group hostage taking will decrease in response to peace negotiations if at least one group is involved in the latter. Conversely, non-insurgent criminal group hostage taking will increase. Three separate time series models were estimated, utilizing data on nearly 40,000 hostage taking incidents. Models for the two main insurgent organizations, the FARC and ELN, as well as general organized crime groups, demonstrate the presence of potential mediating effects. The analysis controlled for potential confounding factors to include general group violence and government security initiatives.

Authors

• Jairo Patino, University of New Haven

• Adam Dulin, U.S. Department of State