Estimating the Costs of Guaranteed Basic Income vs. Prison: An Econometric Analysis

• In Event: Consequences of Incarceration for Economic Stability Across the Life Course

Abstract

Over the last three decades, the US prison population grew dramatically, largely fueled by the enforcement of policies associated with the War on Drugs. At the same time, the American economic system has transformed, characterized by growth in highly-skilled sector occupations and decline in unskilled jobs as a result of automation and outsourcing. Current trends in criminal justice, such as increased interest in reentry and in reducing rates of return for former prisoners, as well as the growing movement toward drug policy reform, if continued, will ultimately result in the decarceration and reintroduction of large numbers of men and women into the labor market, the vast majority of whom are qualified for only unskilled occupations. These individuals are largely superfluous to the current economic system. The integration of these men and women into modern American society presents a significant social policy challenge. Because the American economy is unlikely to evolve in ways that will absorb these individuals, alternative approaches to addressing both the labor market discrepancy and the consequent implications for crime merit exploration. This analysis offers a comparison of the costs of Guaranteed Basic Income to those of incarceration over the life course.

Author

• Kate Auerhahn, Temple University