Do National Crime Rates Follow a Global Trend?

• In Event: Trends in and Explanations of Cross-National Violence Rates

Abstract

Is there a global trend in homicide rates? Recent research suggested a trend based on graphing homicide rates across time. Other scholars questioned the existence of a global trend but argued for a trend in homicide rates among economically elite nations. Similarly, modernization theory proposes a convergence in homicide rates in nations with similar levels of development, which should eventually converge into a global homicide rate trend as nations fully develop. We used annual homicide victimization rates from 1979 to 2010 for a sample of 86 nations and employed semi-partial squared correlation coefficients to search for global, regional, and within-level of development trends. Contrary to the strong conclusions drawn from one prior study, we found little evidence for a global trend in homicide rates. We also found no support for the modernization theory argument for convergence in trends and no support for a trend among economically elite or Western nations. We found evidence for a trend among nations in North America and among nations in Eastern Europe, but weak support for a trend among nations in Latin America, Asia, and Europe as a whole. We discuss the meaning of our findings for recent research, modernization theory, and cross-national homicide research.

Authors

• Meghan L. Rogers, University at Albany, SUNY

• William Alex Pridemore, University at Albany, SUNY