The Influence of Weather on Violence in Israel – Inside and Outside of Prison

• In Event: Biosocial and Psychological Perspectives on Serious Criminal Offending

Abstract

The prevalence of violence in the general population has been found to vary across season (Simister & Cooper, 2004), and correlate with weather: hotter weather is correlated with a higher occurrence of violent events (Simister & Cooper, 2004; Rotton & Cohn, 2000). This phenomenon was previously explained using two mechanisms; according to the physiological mechanism, heat affects the secretion of adrenaline, which in turn contributes to elevated aggressiveness. Conversely, the social-situational model suggests that hotter weather increases the time spent in public spaces, in which violent conflict is more likely.
We tested both models using all reported violent events that occurred during 2009-2011 in Israeli prisons. We compared the prison violence data to violent events recorded by the Israeli police in urban areas in proximity to the prisons . Since the prison daily schedule does not change during the year, the social-situational factors remain approximately constant. Hence, a correlation between weather or daylight time and violence could be attributed only to physiological factors. Also, differences between prison violence and urban violence could be attributed to the social-situational factors and their interaction with human physiology. Our findings and implications will be discussed thoroughly.

Author

• Tomer Carmel, Hebrew University