The Dynamics of Violence and the Risk of Atrocity Crimes: Using Violence Indicators as Precursors of Mass Atrocities

• In Event: Toward a Criminology of Atrocity

Abstract

When and where will mass atrocity crimes happen next? Risk assessments have used an array of root causes of such violence, such as structural and political indicators. These efforts have identified a number of factors of structural strain and disorganization that are conducive to events of mass violence and atrocities; however types of violence and the dynamic evolvement of such violence as precursors to mass atrocities have often been neglected and overlooked. This paper follows the framework of Randall Collins micro-analysis of violence, and adapts it for mass violence events. The empirical study covers the period from 1970 to 2010, and uses different indicators of violence – state violence, terrorism, interpersonal violence, vigilantism – for a global sample. Risks are assessed through conjunctive case analyses and group trajectory methods.

Authors

• Susanne Karstedt, Griffith University

• Michael Koch, University of Bielefeld