A Regression Discontinuity Estimate of Imprisonment’s Effect on the Recidivism of Drug Offenders

• In Event: The Effects of Imprisonment on Recidivism

Abstract

An enduring legacy of the 1980s war on drugs is the increased use of imprisonment for drug offenders under the assumption that imprisonment reduces recidivism. Despite the dramatic effect that the increased use of imprisonment has had on the U.S. criminal justice system and the ongoing debates concerning curtailing imprisonment for drug offenders, limited rigorous research evaluates the effect of imprisonment on drug offenders. This study assesses the effect of imprisonment on drug offenders’ reconviction rates using regression discontinuity design—a method long known to have high levels of internal validity—and a cohort of felony offenders in Florida. These results indicate that imprison in comparison to non-incarcerated sanctions has no meaningful effect on drug offenders’ rates of reconviction; this finding holds across race/ethnicity, gender, and prior justice system involvement.

Authors

• Ojmarrh Mitchell, University of South Florida

• Joshua Cochran, University of Cincinnati

• Daniel P. Mears, Florida State University

• William Bales, Florida State University