Crime at Places: What If Crime Concentration Is Unstable Over Time?

• In Event: Crime and Arrest across Micro Places

Abstract

A growing number of studies found the same crime concentration at micro places in different cities. The stability of these concentrations is crucial for crime predictability and the identification of effective preventive measures. However, very few longitudinal studies focus on this specific aspect and none of them analyzes Europe.
This paper investigates the stability of crime concentration in various Italian cities between 2011 and 2014 applying a group-based trajectory analysis. Results give support to the presence of crime concentration, but do not largely confirm the stability of the same chronic places over time. The paper discusses the implications of unstable concentrations on crime prevention.

Author

• Serena Favarin, Università Cattolica - Transcrime