Exploring the Relationship Between Crime Free Time and Recidivism: Estimating Redemption Points for Parolees

• In Event: Recidivism- What Matters

Abstract

Parole supervision decisions are often informed by risk assessment instruments. Recognizing than an individual’s risk of recidivism declines with time in the community, this project explores whether the time a parolee remains crime free provides useful information in determining recidivism risk and appropriate supervision level above and beyond traditional risk assessment methods. Using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections and Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole, we identify redemption points wherein parolee risk is sufficiently low to warrant reduced or terminated supervision. Redemption is earned when parolee risk is equal to or lesser than the risk of arrest for the general population, or to the risk of recidivism for a group of parolees currently supervised under more lenient conditions. Through this analysis we provide an empirical basis for how parole boards can safely reward parolees for crime free time with reduction in the level of parole supervision or termination of supervision.

Authors

• Nicole Frisch, University of Maryland

• Kiminori Nakamura, University of Maryland

• Bret Bucklen, PA Department of Corrections