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Strategies for the prediction of the individual onset and persistence of sexual abuse of youth and of adults have generally failed to produce constructive results. A new analysis of more than 2000 records of individuals identified by the Boy Scouts of America as unacceptable for participation in that organization yields a comparison of two groups: those persons who were completely barred from participation when they applied for positions, and those persons whose abusive behavior was uncovered after years of participation in the BSA. The results of this analysis, when considered in conjunction with data from other organizational domains, suggest a radical revision of current responses to the risk of sexual abuse.