Using a regression-discontinuity design to examine community-level gun violence and victimization outcomes from the Safe and Successful Youth Initiative in Massachusetts from 2010 to 2015.

• In Event: Preventing Urban Gun Violence in Massachusetts: Results from the Community-based Violence Prevention Study

Abstract

The primary goal of this research project was to assess the impact of the Massachusetts Safe and Successful Youth Initiative (SSYI) on preventing youth (ages 14-24) violence in 11 cities with the highest per capita violence rates in the Commonwealth. The 11 Massachusetts cities with the most violent crimes reported to police in 2010 received SSYI funding. There is a clear break (discontinuity) between communities with SSYI funding and those without: all jurisdictions reporting 477 or more violent offenses to the police in 2010 were included in SSYI, but no jurisdiction with 476 or fewer violent offenses. The results from our analyses are triangulated by also examining indirect regression discontinuity results for violent offenses by offenders age 35 and above. If SSYI is effective, we should see an impact for offenses by persons ages 14–24 but not for persons 35 and older. Positive impacts for both groups would suggest that larger violence prevention initiatives unique to the funded SSYI sites are exerting influence or that SSYI has spillover effects that need further investigation. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Authors

• Anthony Petrosino, WestEd

• Trevor Fronius, WestEd