The Incapacitation Effect of First Imprisonment: A New Benchmark Based on Official Criminal Records

• In Event: Exploring the Adult Trajectories of Juvenile Offenders Processed In New York Criminal Courts

Abstract

Incapacitation effects have traditionally been studied by (1) examining cross-sectional data to capture the impact of imprisonment on aggregate crime rates or (2) examining arrestee or inmate survey data on offending rates immediately before incarceration and interpolating how many crimes would have observed had they not been incarcerated. These approaches require strong assumptions about how incapacitation effects can be realized. The current study thus aims to avoid, or at least to minimize, such challenges identified in the literature through counterfactual analysis that examines the impact of first imprisonment on annual recidivism rates. Using official criminal records, this study examines a large cohort of arrestees over a period of 24 years. Results from this study will shed light on the crime-reduction implications of imprisonment for those who have never been incarcerated. This study will also serve as a benchmark for comparison with findings from prior research using self-reported offending data.

Author

• KiDeuk Kim, Urban Institute