Investigating the Predictors and Prevalence of Wrongful Convictions

• In Event: Wrongful Convictions, CODIS, and Sexual Assault Case Processing: Findings from the Urban Institute’s Forensics Research Portfolio

Abstract

In 2012, the Urban Institute estimated a rate of wrongful conviction based on a study of post-conviction DNA analyses for over 700 homicide and sexual assault convictions in Virginia between the years of 1973 and 1987. Building on this research, the present study investigates whether any attributes of the cases, including defendant and victim characteristics and case processing events, are associated with wrongful conviction. Data for this study relies on a review of original court case files, through which information for approximately 50 case variables was collected. These data are analyzed to determine whether the previous estimate of wrongful convictions should be revised and whether any attributes of the cases are correlated with their outcomes. We also compare national conviction rates for the time period under study to determine whether results in Virginia may be generalizable to other states.

Authors

• Laura Golian, Urban Institute

• Abigail Flynn, Urban Institute

• Jeanette Hussemann, Urban Institute

• Ellen M. Paddock, Urban Institute