The Most Wanted: Archetypal Terrorist Events

• In Event: Examining Terror and Extremisim Using On and Off-line Data

Abstract

Homeland security agencies often use scenarios in planning policy and exercise development. While some of these scenarios represent a typical event, others are chosen to represent extreme events and push responders and systems to their limits. However, the selection of extreme events for scenarios can be ad hoc, guided by perception and political concerns rather than by the data. This presents an opportunity for developing data-driven scenarios more reflective of actual extreme events.

This research will consider extreme scenarios using archetype analysis. An archetype can be viewed as the purest example of some type; Hercules, for example, represents an archetype of strength. Archetype analysis is a statistical method that identifies important archetypes from the data. This distinguishes archetype analysis from grouping methodologies as archetype analysis identifies extreme representatives while grouping seeks to identify what is typical or average for a group. These archetypes must then be interpreted to understand the characteristics that define them.

Archetypal terrorist events will be drawn from the START Global Terrorism Database, a collection of worldwide terrorist events from 1970 to 2014. We will then contextualize these events and interpret their essential characteristics. Finally, applications of archetypes for homeland security planning will be discussed.

Author

• Russell Lundberg, Sam Houston State University