Policing Microgeographic Areas: Is Temporal Stability Important?

• In Event: Macro-Level Issues in Crime Prevention Strategies

Abstract

The recent growth of experimental criminology has revitalized research on the deterrent effects of police patrol. Empirical evidence that crime tends to concentrate in micro-geographic areas is well documented (Weisburd and Telep, 2014). While examination of the spatial concentration of crime has dominated the place-based policing literature, comparatively little attention has been given to how the temporal stability of crime hot spots impacts the efficacy of focused deterrence efforts. Nearly all previous hot spot policing studies utilize cross-sectional data (Wo, 2014), and do not differentiate between chronic (temporally stable) and episodic (temporally sporadic) crime hot spots.
Consequently, much remains unknown regarding how the temporal stability of hot spots impacts the ability of targeted policing efforts to reduce crime. The present study seeks to fill this gap in the literature by comparing chronic and episodic hot spots of violent crime subjected to a randomized controlled policing experiment (Rosenfeld, Deckard, and Blackburn, 2014). A longitudinal analysis of aggravated assault and robbery with a firearm is conducted, comparing control and treatment groups using a difference-in-difference model to assess how the temporal stability of a hot spot affects its response to treatment. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.

Author

• Michael J. Deckard, University of Missouri - St. Louis