Awareness and Opportunity: Testing Interactions Between Activity Nodes and Criminal Opportunity in Predicting Crime Location Choice

• In Event: Crime and Place: Opportunity and Offending

Abstract

According to crime pattern theory, offenders likely commit their crimes in areas where their awareness space overlaps with criminal opportunity. Both factors - awareness space and criminal opportunity - are thus theorized to be necessary conditions for a crime to take place in a certain area. Previous studies examining crime location choice tested the influence of activity nodes, such as residential areas of offenders, previously targeted areas, and residential areas of family members, while controlling for additive effects of the level of criminal opportunity in potential target areas, for example indicators of attractiveness and guardianship. However, it has not been tested whether the influence of awareness space and the influence of criminal opportunity are mutually dependent. Therefore, building upon previous crime location choice studies, the current study aims at testing whether and how the presence of offenders’ activity nodes in potential target areas interacts with several indicators of criminal opportunity in predicting crime location choice.

Authors

• Barbara Menting, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement

• Marre Lammers, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement

• Stijn Ruiter, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement

• Wim Bernasco, NSCR