With Whom, Where, and What? A Person-Centered, Situational Analysis of the Risk of Violent Assault in Urban Environments

• In Event: Crime and Place: Opportunity and Offending

Abstract

A common analytic approach in youth violence research examines individual risk factors in isolation. Yet the risk to be assaulted is likely multifactorial and is highest when certain contextual phenomena co-occur. Using case-control data from 123 gunshot cases, 175 non-gunshot cases, and 274 control subjects (between 10-24 years old), we identified when and how risk activities converge at a specific location and time during an individual’s lived experience through latent class analysis. We tested whether particular situational profiles put youth at heightened risk to be assaulted, and examined whether the risk is modified by the environment using conditional logistical regression. Results indicate that compared to when individuals were with a guardian and indoors in structured activities, being outdoors without guardianship, or outside doing unstructured activities with peers were associated with, respectively, 4.80 and 6.39 times the risk of gunshot assault, and 12.93 and 22.93 times the risk of non-gunshot assault. Vacancy, disorder and violence, and the prevalence of household gun ownership in the environment exacerbate the risk of non-gunshot assault under the two risky conditions. This study illustrates the value of documenting how individuals navigated their daily activity space, and examining the role of actually encountered situations and environment on violence.

Authors

• Beidi Dong, University of Pennsylvania

• Charles C. Branas, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania

• Therese S. Richmond, University of Pennsylvania

• Christopher N. Morrison, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine

• Wensheng Guo, Perelman School of Medicine

• Michael L. Nance, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, PA

• Douglas J. Wiebe, University of Pennsylvania